The Tangerine Terminator: A Look at Shonen Jump's History of Early Cancellations, By the Numbers

In the 55 years since the original launch of Shonen Jump as a biweekly magazine in July of 1968, the magazine has become the iconic origin for too many classic & influential manga to count, out of a total (as of this piece) 744 different series (not including one-shots) that have run in its pages. However, in strong relation to that history of legendary manga that have come from that magazine is also a rather infamous notoriety of early cancellations. It's something that has existed for a long time, but the advent of simulpublishing in English literally every new manga that debuts in the magazine via Viz Media's Shonen Jump subscription service, along with the proliferation of social media making it easier than ever for fans to lament the losses of seemingly promising series, has made this phenomenon more & more known in recent years. It's very easy to come across people today online bemoaning how a new favorite series of theirs has been cut from the Jump roster too soon, and that Jump is way too cutthroat for its own good nowadays; some even argue that Jump was never this harsh with new series back in the day.

But how true is this sentiment, really? Is Shonen Jump truly more cutthroat than ever, or has Jump always been one of the more stringent manga magazines out there, all in an effort to make sure that the ones that manage to stick around for a long time are indeed the strongest titles? Since 2023 marks the 55th Anniversary of Shonen Jump, I think it's time we take a look at Jump's history of early cancellations, but to make sure things are as "objective" (i.e. empirical) as possible we need some hard data...

I made this image.
It is dumb & stupid & I love it.

Before we start, though, we need to lay some ground rules. First, just as with the history of Jump giving final chapters special treatment I went over back in 2021, the information I'll be giving is sourced from Jajanken: Weekly Shonen Jump Lab, which catalogs literally every single issue of Jump from its first issue in 1968 to the most current issue that's out there. This site lists every single manga that appears in each issue & even what the title of each chapter is (& if there's an official English release there's a good chance Jajanken has them in English!), the only exception being various old one-shots; without Jajanken, it'd be nigh-impossible to get anything remotely close to true "hard data". Second, after going over literally every single manga cataloged over at Jajanken & compiling them into an Excel spreadsheet (because what's more "shonen" than collating, right?), I have categorized them across eight different stretches of length: Less Than 10 Chapters (this is mainly to sift out manga that were always intended to be short runs, as it's pretty rare for manga to get outright canceled this early on), 10 to 26 Chapters (this is the range of time most synonymous with early cancellations), 27 to 52 Chapters (i.e. up to a solid year of serialization), 53 to 99 Chapters (i.e. lasting more than one year, but not hitting triple digits), 100 to 199 Chapters, 200 to 299 Chapters, & finally 300 to 399 Chapters & 400+ Chapters (the last two of which only 25 Jump manga have ever achieved so far, so that's a good stopping point). For the purposes of what we're looking for, we will focus primarily on manga that ran somewhere between 10 & 99 chapters, i.e. roughly two to ten volumes long (or just shy of two whole years, at best), though I'll still separate them when bringing up raw numbers. With all of that out of the way, let's finally dig in deep & take a look at Shonen Jump's actual history of early cancellations!

This right here is literally almost 30% of everything
that Jump serialized in its first two years.

First up we have 1968 & 1969, which saw a total of 27 serialized manga debut in Jump, or an average of 13.5 new series per year. Understandably, with only two years to cover from this decade there isn't too much to really cover, but the main takeaway here is that Jump's earliest years were primarily focused around shorter series, in general. Of those 27 series, 10 (or 37%) of them ran for less than 10 chapters & 12 (44%) between 10 & 26 chapters (so that's 22 right there), while there were only two manga (7.4%, or 3.7% for each category) that ran for more or less a solid year, 1969's Delorinman by George Akiyama (which ran for 40 chapters) & 1968's Manga Konto #55 by Naoya Kusumoto (55 chapters). That just leaves only three manga (11%) between 100 & 199 chapters, and those would be Chichi no Tamashii, Harenchi Gakuen, & Otoko Ippiki Gaki Daisho, all of which debuted in 1968 & would become the first three real "hits" in Jump history; understandably, nothing from these first "two" years hit 200 chapters or more. Also, for the fun of it, I decided to calculate what the mean number of chapters was for each decade, and for "The 60s" we get 27.52 chapters, on average. So, when we look at that 10-to-99-chapter range, Jump in the 60s saw 14 out of 27 (52%) in that "early cancellation" range, though in this case I highly doubt that all of those manga were outright cancelled, since Jump couldn't really afford being super strict this early on. Maybe some were indeed cancelled, but I imagine most were always intended to be short, especially once we also add in the stuff that didn't even hit double-digit chapter lengths; with those, we suddenly jump to 24 out of 27 (88.8%). Still, it'll be interesting to see how these percentages actually fare against entire decades.

Part of the fun with this piece is that I can visually show all sorts
of Jump manga that you'd almost never be shown normally...

Speaking of which, it's time we take a look at the 70s, which is where Shonen Jump would start to truly make a name for itself in the industry; today, I prefer to call this time (1968 to 1983, specifically) Jump's "Bronze Age". From 1970 to 1979 the magazine would see a solid 160 serialized manga debut (bringing our total now to 187), or an average of 16 new series per year; this would actually be the most new manga to ever debut in Jump over a ten-year period, as of 2023. Of those, 36 (22.5%) ran for less than 10 chapters, which is actually the all-time record in Jump history across each decade, showing that the concept of purposefully short-run manga was still strong during this time, but in following decades would drop dramatically. As for what we want to focus on, 75 series (47%) ran between 10 & 26 chapters, 19 (12%) between 27 & 52 chapters, & only seven (4.3%) between 53 & 99 chapters. Now while some of those were intended to be shorter series from the start, I do know that there are some titles here that did indeed get cancelled due to a lack of interest, such as 1973's Crime Sweeper & 1974's Pink! Punch! Miyabi (the two-part debut for writer Buronson), 1974's Sukeban Arashi (the debut for Masami Kurumada), & pretty much anything Yasumi Yoshizawa made after ending The Gutsy Frog in 1976. There were also some series that got cancelled apparently because Shueisha felt that Jump was getting a little too bloated & needed to simply ax some titles for space reasons ("Paper doesn't grow on trees, you know!"... wait), which is what happened with Barefoot Gen's original run in Jump between 1973 & 1974; Keiji Nakazawa's editor did try to fight for it to stay, though. Also, from what I can tell, not every manga serialized in Jump at this time necessarily received a collected tankouban release, as I couldn't find any proof of such existing for 1978's Rock n' Roll Baseball by Seido Takeshi & Kazuo Miyazaki, which only ran for 11 chapters; hell, 1970's Manga Drifters ran for 268 chapters, yet never got compiled (or, at least, received a complete tankouban release)!

However, the 70s was also the decade in which Jump started getting more actual long-running titles, with 12 (7.5%) between 100 & 199 chapters, eight (5%) between 200 & 299 chapters, two (1.25%) between 300 & 399 chapters (Toilet Hakase & Kinnikuman), & even one title (0.625%) surpassing 400 chapters (Kochikame), eventually becoming the longest-running manga in Jump history with well over 1,900 chapters in total! Whereas Jump in the late 60s was essentially just three main pillars holding up a magazine filled with shorter series, Jump in the 70s was becoming more a case of establishing numerous titles that readers would consistently come back to over & over, which resulted in competition becoming even more fierce than ever, & with only so many pages to realistically provide for any single issue that meant the editorial staff had to start becoming more picky about what they could allow to continue running in the magazine. However, I should also point out that, even with 101 out of 160 manga (63.125%) in the "early cancellation" range, the average number of chapters across this decade was still nearly double that of the 60s, at 54.56. Even if only 23 manga (14.375%) that debuted in Jump during the 70s actually hit triple digit chapters (or more!), that was still a stark improvement over what had come before, though I guess it would be a bit unfair to compare a solid 10-year run to just 1.5 years (again, Jump's first issue was in mid-1968), most of which happened before Jump went weekly in mid-to-late 1969. Maybe we can find a better comparison with the next decade...

..though that doesn't mean that I still can't get away with including
iconic mangaka in any way, as even they have their "not successes"

Which just happens to be the 80s, i.e. the first half of the "Golden Age of Jump", which started in late 1983 with the debut of Fist of the North Star, so let's take a numerical look at how the first part of Jump's most successful era fares. From 1980 to 1989 the magazine would see 153 serialized manga debut (Total: 340), or an average of 15.3 new series per year. However, with the end of the 70s also came the end of intended short-term serialization for the most part, as only eight manga (5%) in the 80s would run for less than 10 chapters. However, 86 series (56%) ran between 10 & 26 chapters, 21 (14%) between 27 & 52 chapters, & 11 (7%) between 53 & 99 chapters, all of which are an increase over the prior decade. With increased competition, especially with the advent of the Golden Age, it's honestly only natural that Jump's editorial staff would likely become even more strict so as to make sure only the strongest titles would survive. While there were still some series that wound up being short, but not too short, by intention, such as with Baoh the Vistor (yeah, apparently this wasn't killed off, as most of us assumed) or Fuma no Kojirou (which was ended early of the creator's own volition), there were definitely plenty of titles in this decade that were deemed just not good enough to cut the mustard, so speak. Numerous future success stories first experienced early cancellation with their debut works, such as Tetsuo Hara (Iron Don Quixote), Hirohiko Araki (Cool Shock B.T.), Tetsuya Saruwatari (Umi no Senshi & Mr. Whitey), Koji Koseki (Aa Ichiro & Scrum), Yoshihiro Togashi (Ten de Showaru Cupid), & Takehiko Inoue (Chameleon Jail), among others. This also applied to those who already had major successes in Jump, as seen with the likes of Masami Kurumada (Otoko Zaka), Yoshihiro Takahashi (Aozora Fishing & Sho to Daichi), Buichi Terasawa (Black Knight Bat), Yoichi Takahashi (Sho no Densetsu), & especially Hiroshi Motomiya (Yaburekabure, Tenchi wo Kurau, Bakudan, & Sekiryu-Oh). Sure, both of these situations also applied in the 70s, but it was much more pronounced in the 80s.

To be fair, though, it wasn't just the "early cancellations" that also increased in number in any way, either. That's because 14 series (9%) would run between 100 & 199 chapters, six (4%) between 200 & 299 chapters, four (2.6%) between 300 & 399 chapters, & three (2%) would eventually surpass 400 chapters, namely Rokudenashi Blues, Dragon Ball, & JoJo's Bizarre Adventure; sure, the 200s went down a little, but the point still stands. Not just that, but even the average number of chapters increased yet again, with the 80s hitting 59.08. Sure, part of that is because the 80s had 28 less manga that ran for only single digits than the 70s did, but I think it also does show that Jump's stricter stance on early cancellations did truly result in the strongest titles rising to the top in a much more pronounced fashion. Remember, the 80s were the days of Fist of the North Star, Dr. Slump, Dragon Ball, Saint Seiya, Captain Tsubasa, Cat's Eye, City Hunter, and Kimengumi (both San-nen & High School!), the continued run of Kinnikuman & Kochikame, & the later days of stuff like Ring ni Kakero, Tennis Boy, & Cobra. These more than deserved the runs they had, and with a number of these running at the same time as each other that only meant that the other titles that didn't "make it" simply weren't able to keep up; that's not to say anything about quality, potential or realized, but it's only natural, in that regard. That being said, we still wind up with 118 out of 153 (77.124%) manga in the "early cancellation" range, which is an increase over how many were in that range in the 70s, both in terms of raw number & percentage. In fact, the 80s would have the highest number of manga in the "early cancellation" range in Jump's entire history, on a per decade basis... but that's via raw numbers & can be explained partially as due to also having the second highest amount of new series that debuted in a single decade for Jump. The question will be if the percentage will also wind up being the highest, as that's where the real comparison is, I'd argue.

Yes, Jump literally had two different manga titled Bakudan in two
consecutive decades, by two different mangaka... and they both (seemingly) bombed.

The 90s was a tale of two halves, for the most part. Up until the final chapter of Slam Dunk in mid-1996, Shonen Jump was hitting the apex of the Golden Age, eventually topping out at a readership of 6.53 million copies for combined Issue #3+4 of 1995. Following the end of Slam Dunk, though, Jump's readership notably dropped to around 4.5 million until the new millennium, when it started dropping slowly more & more over time, though that was reflective of manga magazines in general during that time, too; I call this second part of the 90s both the "Dark Age" & "Heroic Age", depending on how you look at things. I wouldn't necessarily say this is reflective of anything when it came to new serializations, though, as while only 128 serialized manga debuted from 1990 to 1999 (Total: 468), or an average of 12.8 new series per year, only 43 of those actually happened after Slam Dunk's final chapter, which actually matches the average per year rather closely. Technically, there were 129 "new" series in this decade, but one of those was the return of 1988's Bastard!! after a seven-year run in the Shonen Jump Seasonal Specials (1990 to 1996), so I excluded that from the count. Out of those newbies, a mere five (3.9%) would run for less than 10 chapters, while only 72 (56.25%) would run between 10 & 26 chapters & just 10 (7.8%) would run between 27 & 52 chapters, all of which were a decrease from the 80s; I'd argue this is only natural with this decade having 25 fewer new series, overall, though. Meanwhile, 12 (9.4%) would run between 53 & 99 chapters, an increase of only one from the 80s, but with fewer overall new series it was still a 2.4% increase. In terms of what exactly failed, we had some more initial failures for future success, like Ryu Fujisaki (Psycho+), Hiroyuki Takei (Butsu Zone), Takeshi Konomi (Cool -Rental Body Guard-), Tite Kubo (ZombiePowder.), Kazuki Takahashi (Ten'nenshoku Danji Buray), Kentaro Yabuki (Yamato Gensouki) & most notably Takeshi Obata (Majin Bouketan Lamp Lamp, Chikarabito Densetsu, & Ayatsuri Sakon). There were also more previously successful mangaka whose later works bombed hard (or, at least, some of them did), like Masaya Tokuhiro (Wrestling with Momoko), Shinji Imaizumi (Kurayami wo Buttobase!), Akira Miyashita (Bakudan [no relation to Hiroshi Motomiya's manga]), & Tetsuo Hara (Takeki Ryusei).

However, I'd argue that the 90s was probably the decade in which early cancellations truly started to achieve notoriety, in & of themselves. 1992's Silent Knight Sho, for example, wound up being Masami Kurumada's final manga for Shonen Jump, with him literally stating that the series would "NEVER END" on the final page, a defiant stunt very similar to the "未完/Incomplete" he pulled with Otoko Zaka almost a decade prior. 1996's Makuhari by Yasuaki Kita became legendary due to Kita's real-life tension with Tottemo! Luckyman's Hiroshi Gamou (as seen in the author's notes for each issue), resulting in Kita revealing in the final chapter that Gamou was actually the main character of the series! While not technically counting as an "early cancellation", 1995's Level E was Yoshihiro Togashi testing the absolute limits of what he was allowed to get away with after the runaway success of Yu Yu Hakusho, delivering a manga that seemingly aimed to be anything BUT what the readers expected, or maybe even wanted. 1992's Ultimate! Hentai Kamen by Keishu Ando was a straight year of Jump serializing a story about a superhero who could only just barely contain his testicles within his overstretched underwear while fighting evil, all while literally wearing women's panties over his face. Most notably, though, were a trio of quick failures that actually wound up being given second chances, an extreme rarity. 1991's Outer Zone by Shin Mitsuhara, 1992's Hareluya by Haruto Umezawa, & 1998's Rising Impact by Nakaba Suzuki (yes, the man who'd later make The Seven Deadly Sins) were all initially cancelled a mere 10 chapters into their runs (15, for the last one), but a few respective months later were all allowed to return, though in Umezawa's case he did so via a complete reboot with 1992's Hareluya II BØY. Therefore, while the 90s did also see 15 series (12%) run between 100 & 199 chapters, 10 (7.8%) between 200 & 299 chapters (both of which were an increase from the 80s), two (1.6%) between 300 & 399 chapters (Prince of Tennis & Yu-Gi-Oh!), & even three (2.3%) would surpass 400 chapters (Hunter x Hunter, Naruto, & One Piece, the last of which becoming the only other Jump manga to surpass 1,000 chapters), one can certainly make a fair counterpoint that Jump in the 90s was just as much defined by the titles that didn't manage to last for long, as the editorial staff seemingly allowed mangaka to express themselves in more varied ways. Not just that, but once again our we see an increase with an average chapter count of 78.58 for the 90s, while our total count of 94 out of 128 (73.4375%) manga in the "early cancellation" range is a decrease when compared to the 80s!

I'm a Faker! is, without a doubt, one of the greatest titles of all time....
and by that I mean "the literal title is amazing", as I've never actually read it.

After going through a bit of a rough spot in the latter half of the 90s following the end of the Golden Age, the 00s was essentially an age of re-establishing for Jump, with a variety of brand new titles that would go on to become major hits, including the only other generally agreed upon "Big 3" (One Piece, Naruto, & Bleach) after the original three long-runnners Jump had in the late 60s. Still, once again we see a reduction in the number of overall new series when compared to prior decades, as from 2000 to 2009 only 115 serialized manga debuted in this decade (Total: 583), or an average of 11.5 new series per year, and most notably only two (1.7%) actually ran for less than 10 chapters (the least number, per decade, in Jump history so far). Those would be 2000's Kurage Chuni by Masatoshi Takada (just three chapters, but with three one-shots before & after) & 2008's Chagecha by Yoshio Sawai, the latter of which is generally agreed upon as the record holder for fastest cancellation in Jump history at just eight chapters; there have been shorter manga than Chagecha in Jump both before & since, but those were all intended to be short runs from the start. Meanwhile, 66 series (57%) ran between 10 & 26 chapters, 13 (11%) between 27 & 52 chapters, & 11 (9.6%) between 53 & 99 chapters, so there was actually a drop in the earliest of cancellations when compared to the 90s, while the other two categories only experienced relatively minor changes, if anything at all really. The 00s were also the decade where more manga either got moved to other magazines instead of being cancelled, or at the very least were finished elsewhere. Bastard!! (which stayed in Jump through 2000), Steel Ball Run, Beshari-Gurashi, & D.Gray-man all eventually moved over to Ultra Jump, Young Jump, or Jump Square, respectively, while Buso Renkin, P2! - Let's Play Pingpong!, & Hokenshitsu no Shinigami would see their proper finales in Akamaru Jump & Jump Next!, respectively; this decade wasn't the first time such things would happen, obviously, but it was more prevalent here than before.

Just as before, the 00s had its share of prior success stories being unable to follow up properly, such as Haruto Umezawa (Bremen, Sword Breaker, & Live), Hiroshi Gamou (Bakabakashiino!), Ryu Fujisaki (Sakuretsu Taiwahen & WaqWaq), Nobuhiro Watsuki (Gun Blaze West), Nakaba Suzuki (Ultra Red), & Tsunomaru (Gotchan Desu!!). The same is also slightly true here of future legends with rough starts, like Akira Akatsuki (Contractor M&Y) & Naoshi Komi (Double Arts), but the 00s is arguably most recognized as the decade of mangaka who just couldn't seem to truly break through that glass ceiling, despite their talents & growing fanbases. Yasuhiro Kano is a great example, as 2002's Pretty Face pushed the boundaries of what one could get away with in Jump with his story of a rough & ready high school boy needing to act like the prim & proper twin sister of his crush after a freak accident, while 2006's Mx0 did something similar, but now with a normal kid having to trick his way through a school for magic users, & his series in the next decade (2011's Kagami no Kuni no Harisugawa) would perform even worse; the fact that Mx0 ended at 99 chapters, just one shy from hitting triple digits, rubbed many fans the wrong way. Probably the best example, though, would be Toshiaki Iwashiro, who found himself a cult following with 2005's Mieru Hito, which lasted a respectable 58 chapters, & he even managed to hit triple digits with 2008's Psyren, but in both cases fans would argue that neither title truly received due recognition & that both should have run for longer; just as with Kano, Iwashiro's third series in the next decade, 2015's Kagamigami, would perform the worst.

Still, to finish this decade off, there were 11 series (9.6%) that ran between 100 & 199 chapters, seven (6%) between 200 & 299 chapters, only two (1.7%) between 300 & 399 chapters (Eyeshield 21 & Toriko), & four (3.5%) would surpass 400 chapters, the last of which remains the all-time record across any decade. However, even with fewer manga being cancelled within half a year & more running beyond 400 chapters than ever, the average chapter count actually went down, at 76.43, which is interesting. Also, with 90 out of 115 (78.26%) within that "early cancellation" range (Chagecha was not included, for consistency's sake), we actually have the largest percentage seen yet across any decade, beating out the 80s by just over 1%! Without a doubt, the 00s was a bit of a self-contradictory time for Jump when it came to the infamous strictness of the editorial staff, as while seemingly more series were allowed time to breathe & establish themselves, that isn't really reflected in the average number of chapters across the entire decade, while the overall percentage of early cancellations actually hit its highest number yet. Does that mean that the 00s were harsher than ever, or is it just more a circumstance of the fact that manga were aiming to be longer from the get-go, in general, resulting in fewer new series being able to debut throughout the decade, which in turn skewed the percentages?

The answer to that, I feel, is up to personal opinion.

Hey, some of these titles are ones that modern day
English manga readers may actually be familiar with!

Similar to the 90s, the 2010s was yet another tale of two halves. Many major titles of the "Silver Age", as I like to call it, were nearing their respective ends in the first half, with the most notable being the end of Naruto in 2014, a moment that necessitated giving it the first "full color final chapter" treatment since Slam Dunk in 1996, though modified a bit to reflect the advancements made since then, like the advent of digital coloring. Combined with Kochikame's finale in 2016, which also received special treatment, it was up to yet another new age of series, which I've come to call the "Iron Age", to carry the torch; today, the oldest manga still running in Jump are One Piece & (technically) Hunter x Hunter, both "Dark/Heroic Age" manga from the late 90s. In terms of total number of new series, we see that 114 serialized manga debuted from 2010 to 2019 (Total: 697), or an average of 11.4 new series per year, effectively the same number as the 00s. Of those, just three (2.6%) ran for less than 10 chapters, 63 (55%) between 10 & 26 chapters, 22 (19%) between 27 & 52 chapters, & only nine (7.9%) between 53 & 99 chapters. This is an interesting result, as for this decade it looks as though Jump's editorial staff loosened up a little bit, resulting in a tad fewer series being taken to the woodshed early on, while we actually get an all-time record for most manga to run between half a year & a full year, beating out the 80s by one! However, those that managed to go beyond one year (but not reach triple digits) wound up hitting a low not seen since the 70s, which is also notable. Coincidentally, a good amount of this decade coincided with Viz starting its initial efforts at simulpublishing with Barrage by Kohei Horikoshi, which sadly only lasted 16 chapters, effectively introducing most English-speaking manga readers to the concept of experiencing early cancellations in real-time, something that had previously only really been known to those who read weekly fan translations. While the idea of simulpublishing everything in Jump wouldn't really become a reality until a good number of years later, Viz did initially start with Barrage & Cross Manage by Kaito (both in 2012), with the latter only lasting 43 chapters, before eventually introducing the "Jump Start" program in 2014 with Judos by Shinsuke Kondo, where most new series would be guaranteed three simulpublished chapters & only be continued in English if the interest was there abroad; as for Judos, Viz would only ever simulpublish the first three chapters, & it'd end in Japan after just 18.

As for the longer running series, six (5.3%) would run between 100 & 199 chapters, eight (7%) between 200 & 299 chapters, three (2.6%) between 300 & 399 chapters (including Food Wars: Shokugeki no Soma), & just one (0.88%) would surpass 400 chapters (Haikyu!!). Yes, both My Hero Academia & Black Clover will surpass 400 chapters in due time, but as of this date they're both still in the 300s; also, our focus here is on the early cancellations, anyway. This entire decade is an interesting one to look at when it comes to early cancellations, because while a good majority of them were experienced by readers outside of Japan in real-time in a legal fashion, there are still gaps to be found, both because of the fact that there were 23 series that debuted prior to Barrage (of which only Nisekoi, Haikyu!!, & The Disastrous Life of Saiki K. would enter triple digits, & the last one has yet to be licensed for English), and Viz simply being unable to fully commit to 100% simulpublishing for all of Shonen Jump until late 2018, a good six years after Barrage was the first one to be given that treatment. Because of this, most people still wouldn't know of titles like Metallica Metalluca by Teruaki Mizuno, SWOT by Naoya Sugita, Oumagadoki Zoo by Kohei Horikoshi, Sengoku Armors by Shota Sasaki, Kurogane by Haruto Ikezawa, Hungry Joker by Yuki Tabata, iShojo by Toshinori Takayama (the only other cancellation ever given a second chance, though via Shonen Jump+), or even Lady Justice by Ken Ogino, the last of which is literally the final Shonen Jump manga to debut without being simulpublished in English by Viz, even if only for three chapters via Jump Start; it only lasted 16 chapters. However, as always, we end with two final stats, which some could look at as the most telling of all, possibly. Namely, 94 out of 114 (82.456%) manga were in the "early cancellation" range, and the average number of chapters for the entire decade was 60.04. In other words, the 2010s saw the highest percentage of manga for an entire decade only run between 10 & 99 chapters, while the average chapter count was at its lowest since the 80s, with the 2010s beating it out by just 0.96 chapters; yeah, a difference of just barely less than one! However, it is worth pointing out that, in terms of raw numbers, the 2010s actually matched the 90s exactly, with both seeing 94 manga end within that "early cancellation" range, and that's why I am making sure to give both raw numbers & percentages here, because each tell their own story.

Is it "too soon" to include some of these as "failed Jump manga"?
Well, sorry, but that's just how history works, people.

And with all of that out of the way we have now reached the 2020s, a.k.a. the decade we're currently in, and the first one in which literally every single Shonen Jump manga that debuts in the weekly magazine is guaranteed a full simulpublishing in English. Naturally, with only 3.5 years to look over we can't really judge how things are for early cancellations within Shonen Jump, but I guess we can at least see how things have fared so far, and maybe even make some predictions based on extrapolation. First off, to get the current numbers out of the way, as of the publishing of this piece, 47 series have debuted from 2020 to mid-2023, or an average of 13.43 new series per year; so far, that gives the 2020s the most new series/year since the 80s. Of those, six have run for less than 10 chapters, but of those four have only recently debuted. The two that are (currently) staying this small are 2020's Burn the Witch (which is planned to return, someday) & 2022's RuriDragon (which went on hiatus after six chapters due to the mangaka's health). Meanwhile, 18 series (38.3%) have run between 10 & 26 chapters (of which two are still running, at the moment), 11 (23.4%) have run between 27 & 52 chapters (of which three are still running, at the moment), four (8.51%) have run between 53 & 99 chapters (of which one is still running, at the moment), & finally eight (17.02%) have run for over 100 chapters (of which six are still running, at the moment, due to Mashle: Magic & Muscles literally just ending a day before this went live). Understandably, nothing from this decade has reached 200 chapters yet, as that requires roughly 3.8 years to reach, & we're only 3.5 years through the decade, so far. It'd be a bit unfair to give an overall percentage or chapter average for this short range of time, but for the fun of it here they are: 33 out of 47 manga (70.21%) have, so far, been in the "early cancellation" range, while the average number of chapters currently is at 46.333. To be fair, while the chapter average is understandably low (it's currently second only to the 60s), the overall percentage is actually the lowest it's been since the 70s, which is rather neat.

Still, all of this is only from about 3.5 years, out of a total 10 that would normally be counted. Therefore, using what we now know from prior decades, can we calculate an extrapolation & make a guess as to what this decade's final tally could theoretically be? Taking into account that the 60s were technically just 1.5 years for Jump, which in turn makes its results more or less an outlier, I'll be giving a range for most of these results, one taking the 60s into account (i.e. the lower number) & another without the 60s (i.e. the larger number), which I think is fair; anything involving 200 or more chapters will be a single number, though, since the 60s didn't have any. So, after taking some time to figure out how to use the "Forecast" function in Excel, here's what I came up with, rounding to the closest whole number: The total number of new series debuting in Shonen Jump in the 2020s could be 109 to 123. Of those, six or seven (5.5%-5.7%) would be less than 10 chapters, 59 to 67 (54.13%-54.47%) would be between 10 & 26 chapters, 15 to 18 (13.76%-14.63%) would be between 27 & 52 chapters (i.e. four to seven slots remaining), nine or ten (8.26%-8.13%) would be between 53 & 99 chapters (i.e. five or six slots remaining), eight to ten (7.34%-8.13%) would be between 100 & 199 chapters (i.e. two more, at most), eight (6.5%) would be between 200 & 299 chapters, three (2.44%) would be between 300 & 399 chapters, & two (1.626%) would surpass 400 chapters; the last three categories are all open for the taking.

Of course, take all of these forecasts with a massive, metric ton of salt, because there are all sorts of human factors to take into consideration that no computer would ever be capable of predicting. That being said, however, the numbers & percentages that I got via extrapolation are roughly in line with the numbers that we've seen in real life, both in raw number & percentage, though the "Less Than 10 Chapters" category is higher than what it'll likely be; I guess you could say three or four of them might debut right at the end of 2029.

Again, what's more "shonen" than collating, am I right?!

So is there anything that we can take from all of this? Certainly, people are open to make their own decisions based on this data to reflect whatever personal opinion they have, like now arguing that Jump publishes fewer & fewer manga per decade than ever (even though the 2010s is effectively even with the 2000s), without taking into consideration that it's primarily because very few series run for less than 10 chapters now, something that's been true since the 80s. Personally, though, I find some interesting things in those charts I made, as they do show a form of consistency. For example, while the top left chart with the raw numbers shows that the 80s were Jump's most cutthroat decade when it came to ending manga between 10 & 26 chapters long, when you look at the top right chart, which shows percentages, we see that Jump's actually been extremely consistent ever since the 80s with manga of that length! Likewise, when you look at all the other categories beyond 26 chapters, the general shapes of each category's charts are shockingly consistent between raw numbers & percentages, which I actually didn't expect to see at all. Finally, the "Overall Results" chart in the bottom left shows that while (yes) fewer new series debut in Jump with each full decade (again, "the 60s" were just 1.5 years, in total), and the 2010s' average number of chapters is a marked drop from the general per decade increase that had come before, the number of manga that only ended in that "early cancellation" range of 10 to 99 chapters (in terms of raw numbers) has actually maintained a sense of consistency since the 90s, while the percentages have been extremely consistent since the 80s (if still technically hitting a high in the 2010s).

So, to answer the question asked all the way back in the beginning, I think it's rather easy & plain to see that, despite how it may feel in real time from a subjective/personal standpoint, Shonen Jump has actually been surprisingly consistent when it comes to ending manga early. At least, one can argue that for the most part since the 80s, which is also when the reliance on short-term manga that ran for less than 10 chapters was more or less dropped, which in turn resulted in more manga being given a chance to stake a claim for a long life in the magazine. Make no mistake, Jump is indeed a cutthroat publication & may very well be the most willing to end manga before they even reach half a year of serialization if they aren't up to snuff in the eyes of the Japanese readers. As we can now see, more than half of all manga that debut in Jump across a decade end before hitting 26 chapters, and that's been consistently true since the 80s. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Jump is also the shonen magazine that welcomes in new mangaka the most often, as all of those early cancellations also mean that the door is often open for someone new to take a chance on themselves. Sure, the chances of failure are reasonably high, but then that mangaka can either give up, make another attempt in the magazine, or try things out elsewhere, like the digital Shonen Jump+, monthly Jump Square, or (if they're intrepid enough) another publisher.

In the end, making manga (especially for Shonen Jump) is a gamble in which a little over half who put down a bet will wind up losing to the house, but those who do survive that initial half year (even if they still don't make it to triple digit chapters) should still be proud of that achievement, nonetheless. And, as Scott Steiner once said, "The numbers don't lie," though in this case they don't really spell "Disaster" for Samoa Joe at Sacrifice.